[A2k] ACTA: Wild assumptions

Ante ante at ffii.org
Mon Jun 11 08:04:37 PDT 2012

Wild assumptions
with links

June 11, 2012
By Ante

According to the “ACTA facts” website, ACTA will give the EU an enormous 
boost: “Economic stimulus: €50 billion in growth and 960,000 new jobs”.

That’s unexpected. According to the European Parliament INTA study, the ACTA 
partners already have a high level of protection of intellectual property 
rights, so “There does not therefore appear to be any immediate benefit from 
ACTA for EU citizens”.

Undeterred, the Frontier Economics and BASCAP report assumes that trade with 
ACTA partners will increase with 5% of 67% of all current trade with ACTA 
partners, that is 19 billion euro.

If the BRICS countries join, the report expects trade will increase with 10% 
of 67% of current trade with BRICS countries, that is 23 billion. As if the 
BRICS countries feel any inclination to sign ACTA.

These are assumptions based on total current trade, actual counterfeiting 
numbers are disregarded.

At such moments, it is good to remember what the Dutch Accountability Office 
wrote in its 2010 EU Trend Report: Counterfeiting numbers have “major 
shortcomings”. The Office also wrote that the shortcomings are known, but 
still the numbers are used in public documents and for new policy. (The Trend 
report is in Dutch.)

The bets are open: how soon will the European Commission and politicians use 
the 50 billion in growth and 1 million jobs? Let me guess: just before the 
European Parliament ACTA vote.

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