[A2k] ACTA: Wild assumptions
ante at ffii.org
Mon Jun 11 08:04:37 PDT 2012
June 11, 2012
According to the “ACTA facts” website, ACTA will give the EU an enormous
boost: “Economic stimulus: €50 billion in growth and 960,000 new jobs”.
That’s unexpected. According to the European Parliament INTA study, the ACTA
partners already have a high level of protection of intellectual property
rights, so “There does not therefore appear to be any immediate benefit from
ACTA for EU citizens”.
Undeterred, the Frontier Economics and BASCAP report assumes that trade with
ACTA partners will increase with 5% of 67% of all current trade with ACTA
partners, that is 19 billion euro.
If the BRICS countries join, the report expects trade will increase with 10%
of 67% of current trade with BRICS countries, that is 23 billion. As if the
BRICS countries feel any inclination to sign ACTA.
These are assumptions based on total current trade, actual counterfeiting
numbers are disregarded.
At such moments, it is good to remember what the Dutch Accountability Office
wrote in its 2010 EU Trend Report: Counterfeiting numbers have “major
shortcomings”. The Office also wrote that the shortcomings are known, but
still the numbers are used in public documents and for new policy. (The Trend
report is in Dutch.)
The bets are open: how soon will the European Commission and politicians use
the 50 billion in growth and 1 million jobs? Let me guess: just before the
European Parliament ACTA vote.
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