[A2k] Research says that French "three strikes" law has no deterrent effect

Heesob Nam hurips at gmail.com
Tue Jan 28 09:46:33 PST 2014


The effectiveness of graduated-response anti-piracy systems that have
now been implemented in France, New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea and
the USA has always been debated, and new research from American and
French researchers, based on a survey of 2,000 internet users in
France, has found that the so called 2009 'three strikes' system in
France (the 'Hadopi' law) has not deterred individuals from engaging
in digital piracy and the system does not reduce the intensity of
illegal activity of those who did engage in piracy. The researchers
from the University of Delaware Alfred Lerner College of Business and
Economics and the Université de Rennes I - Center for Research in
Economics and Management also noted that for those internet users with
closer links to the piracy community - a classification based on the
piracy chat in said users' social networks - the introduction of
three-strikes in France, which targeted exclusively P2P file-sharing,
pushed file-sharers down other routes to accessing unlicensed content.
 More than a third sampled --37.6 percent--admitted to illegal
downloading, with 22 percent using P2P networks and 30 percent using
"alternative channels." About 16.4 percent of those who had engaged in
the downloads received a warning from Hadopi, the government agency
with the same name as the law it enforces.

The Researchers say: "Consistent with theoretical predictions, our
econometric results indicate that the Hadopi law has not deterred
individuals from engaging in digital piracy and that it did not reduce
the intensity of illegal activity of those who did engage in piracy"
adding "While several factors affect the perceived probability of
detection under the law, our results show that the propensity to
engage in illegal file-sharing is independent of these beliefs."

The results suggest that those who have more 'pirates' in their social
networks switch to alternatives, such as direct download sites and
newsgroups with the researchers saying "There is evidence that the law
encourages Internet users who better understand the law and
alternative piracy channels (those with many digital pirates in their
social network) to substitute away from the monitored P2P channel and
to obtain content through unmonitored illegal channels,"  which
conversely means that the three-strikes system is more likely to catch
less prolific file-sharers.

That said, the authors cite another 2014 study which found that iTunes
has seen a 20-25 percent increase in sales of French music just prior
to implementation of the law. However, the authors attribute the
increased sales to "public educational efforts," not to the deterrent
effect of the law.

More on http://torrentfreak.com/three-strikes-law-does-nothing-to-curb-piracy-research-finds-140122/
and you can download the paper here

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