[Ip-health] New Tufts study on R&D costs

Aidan Hollis ahollis at ucalgary.ca
Fri Nov 14 09:57:50 PST 2014


Biologics are already in the $1.7bn range. So given that they will be using data from a very low productivity period, when new approvals were dragging and budgets were relatively high, I predict precisely $2.17bn

Current FDA approvals are sharply up, but I guess the most recent years’ data will not be included.

Aidan Hollis
Professor of Economics
University of Calgary
ahollis at ucalgary.ca <mailto:ahollis at ucalgary.ca>
+1 403 220 5861

http://econ.ucalgary.ca/profiles/aidan-hollis <http://econ.ucalgary.ca/hollis.htm>

Incentives for Global Health
http://www.healthimpactfund.org <http://www.healthimpactfund.org/>
On Nov 14, 2014, at 10:41 AM, Gaelle Krikorian <gaelle.krikorian at gmail.com> wrote:

Hi,

I bet $1,705 billion. They have at least to double the figure…

Gaelle




Le 14 nov. 2014 à 18:35, Jamie Love <james.love at keionline.org> a écrit :

> Next week, a new version of the Tufts study on R&D costs will be released.
> 
> KEI will give $50 to the person who comes the closed in predicting the new
> figure for the cost of R&D for the lead indication of a new chemical entity.
> 
> An abstract of the earlier 2003 study,"The price of innovation: new
> estimates of drug development costs" is available here:
> 
> http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12606142
> 
> 
> The 2003 study put the number at $802 million (not $800 million, but $802
> million), in 2000 dollars.
> 
> As I said, $50 for the closest estimate, published on IP-Health, before the
> new number is announced (or leaked).
> 
> Jamie
> 
> --
> James Love.  Knowledge Ecology International
> http://www.keionline.org/donate.html
> KEI DC tel: +1.202.332.2670, US Mobile: +1.202.361.3040, Geneva Mobile:
> +41.76.413.6584, twitter.com/jamie_love
> _______________________________________________
> Ip-health mailing list
> Ip-health at lists.keionline.org
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----------------------
Gaelle Krikorian
galk at free.fr

Tel +33 (0)6 09 17 70 55






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