[Ip-health] New Tufts study on R&D costs

Manon Ress manon.ress at keionline.org
Fri Nov 14 11:34:19 PST 2014


I bet 2.355 Billion  (increase of 8% each year).


On Fri, Nov 14, 2014 at 1:25 PM, Outterson, Kevin <mko at bu.edu> wrote:

> $2.44 billion per NME
>
> Assume a 10 year lag; 2003 global pharma R&D spending was self reported at
> 52.3 billion; 2013 NME FDA approvals = 27.  1.93 billion; inflating for CPI
> = $2.44 billion.  Estimate ignores BLAs, non-NMEs, approvals outside US,
> actual company discount rate (much higher than CPI), R&D spending is
> self-reported, and the fact that most 2003 R&D did not relate to the drugs
> actually approved in 2013. #justforfun
>
> Kevin Outterson
> ___________________
> Professor of Law & N. Neal Pike Scholar in Health and Disability Law -
> Boston University
> Associate Fellow, Chatham House
> Editor in Chief, Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics
> Blogging health law at The Incidental Economist
> Research papers at SSRN & Google Scholar
> @koutterson  |  617 935 6517
>
> On Nov 14, 2014, at 12:57 PM, Aidan Hollis <ahollis at ucalgary.ca> wrote:
>
> > Biologics are already in the $1.7bn range. So given that they will be
> using data from a very low productivity period, when new approvals were
> dragging and budgets were relatively high, I predict precisely $2.17bn
> >
> > Current FDA approvals are sharply up, but I guess the most recent years'
> data will not be included.
> >
> > Aidan Hollis
> > Professor of Economics
> > University of Calgary
> > ahollis at ucalgary.ca <mailto:ahollis at ucalgary.ca>
> > +1 403 220 5861
> >
> > http://econ.ucalgary.ca/profiles/aidan-hollis <
> http://econ.ucalgary.ca/hollis.htm>
> >
> > Incentives for Global Health
> > http://www.healthimpactfund.org <http://www.healthimpactfund.org/>
> > On Nov 14, 2014, at 10:41 AM, Gaelle Krikorian <
> gaelle.krikorian at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Hi,
> >
> > I bet $1,705 billion. They have at least to double the figure...
> >
> > Gaelle
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Le 14 nov. 2014 à 18:35, Jamie Love <james.love at keionline.org> a écrit :
> >
> >> Next week, a new version of the Tufts study on R&D costs will be
> released.
> >>
> >> KEI will give $50 to the person who comes the closed in predicting the
> new
> >> figure for the cost of R&D for the lead indication of a new chemical
> entity.
> >>
> >> An abstract of the earlier 2003 study,"The price of innovation: new
> >> estimates of drug development costs" is available here:
> >>
> >> http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12606142
> >>
> >>
> >> The 2003 study put the number at $802 million (not $800 million, but
> $802
> >> million), in 2000 dollars.
> >>
> >> As I said, $50 for the closest estimate, published on IP-Health, before
> the
> >> new number is announced (or leaked).
> >>
> >> Jamie
> >>
> >> --
> >> James Love.  Knowledge Ecology International
> >> http://www.keionline.org/donate.html
> >> KEI DC tel: +1.202.332.2670, US Mobile: +1.202.361.3040, Geneva Mobile:
> >> +41.76.413.6584, twitter.com/jamie_love
> >> _______________________________________________
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> >>
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> >
> > ----------------------
> > Gaelle Krikorian
> > galk at free.fr
> >
> > Tel +33 (0)6 09 17 70 55
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
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> >
> >
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-- 
Manon Ress, Ph.D.
Knowledge Ecology International, KEI
manon.ress at keionline.org, tel.: +1 202 332 2670
www.keionline.org
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