[Ip-health] New Tufts study on R&D costs

Outterson, Kevin mko at bu.edu
Tue Nov 18 08:17:54 PST 2014


I was pretty close - and if I won, the $$ goes to MSF, with personal matching gift.  Feel free to follow suit.

Kevin
___________________
Professor of Law & N. Neal Pike Scholar in Health and Disability Law - Boston University
Associate Fellow, Chatham House
Editor in Chief, Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics
Blogging health law at The Incidental Economist
Research papers at SSRN & Google Scholar
@koutterson  |  617 935 6517

On Nov 14, 2014, at 1:25 PM, Outterson, Kevin <mko at bu.edu> wrote:

> $2.44 billion per NME
> 
> Assume a 10 year lag; 2003 global pharma R&D spending was self reported at 52.3 billion; 2013 NME FDA approvals = 27.  1.93 billion; inflating for CPI = $2.44 billion.  Estimate ignores BLAs, non-NMEs, approvals outside US, actual company discount rate (much higher than CPI), R&D spending is self-reported, and the fact that most 2003 R&D did not relate to the drugs actually approved in 2013. #justforfun
> 
> Kevin Outterson
> ___________________
> Professor of Law & N. Neal Pike Scholar in Health and Disability Law - Boston University
> Associate Fellow, Chatham House
> Editor in Chief, Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics
> Blogging health law at The Incidental Economist
> Research papers at SSRN & Google Scholar
> @koutterson  |  617 935 6517
> 
> On Nov 14, 2014, at 12:57 PM, Aidan Hollis <ahollis at ucalgary.ca> wrote:
> 
>> Biologics are already in the $1.7bn range. So given that they will be using data from a very low productivity period, when new approvals were dragging and budgets were relatively high, I predict precisely $2.17bn
>> 
>> Current FDA approvals are sharply up, but I guess the most recent years’ data will not be included.
>> 
>> Aidan Hollis
>> Professor of Economics
>> University of Calgary
>> ahollis at ucalgary.ca <mailto:ahollis at ucalgary.ca>
>> +1 403 220 5861
>> 
>> http://econ.ucalgary.ca/profiles/aidan-hollis <http://econ.ucalgary.ca/hollis.htm>
>> 
>> Incentives for Global Health
>> http://www.healthimpactfund.org <http://www.healthimpactfund.org/>
>> On Nov 14, 2014, at 10:41 AM, Gaelle Krikorian <gaelle.krikorian at gmail.com> wrote:
>> 
>> Hi,
>> 
>> I bet $1,705 billion. They have at least to double the figure…
>> 
>> Gaelle
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Le 14 nov. 2014 à 18:35, Jamie Love <james.love at keionline.org> a écrit :
>> 
>>> Next week, a new version of the Tufts study on R&D costs will be released.
>>> 
>>> KEI will give $50 to the person who comes the closed in predicting the new
>>> figure for the cost of R&D for the lead indication of a new chemical entity.
>>> 
>>> An abstract of the earlier 2003 study,"The price of innovation: new
>>> estimates of drug development costs" is available here:
>>> 
>>> http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12606142
>>> 
>>> 
>>> The 2003 study put the number at $802 million (not $800 million, but $802
>>> million), in 2000 dollars.
>>> 
>>> As I said, $50 for the closest estimate, published on IP-Health, before the
>>> new number is announced (or leaked).
>>> 
>>> Jamie
>>> 
>>> --
>>> James Love.  Knowledge Ecology International
>>> http://www.keionline.org/donate.html
>>> KEI DC tel: +1.202.332.2670, US Mobile: +1.202.361.3040, Geneva Mobile:
>>> +41.76.413.6584, twitter.com/jamie_love
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Ip-health mailing list
>>> Ip-health at lists.keionline.org
>>> http://lists.keionline.org/mailman/listinfo/ip-health_lists.keionline.org
>> 
>> ----------------------
>> Gaelle Krikorian
>> galk at free.fr
>> 
>> Tel +33 (0)6 09 17 70 55
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> _______________________________________________
>> Ip-health mailing list
>> Ip-health at lists.keionline.org
>> http://lists.keionline.org/mailman/listinfo/ip-health_lists.keionline.org
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> _______________________________________________
>> Ip-health mailing list
>> Ip-health at lists.keionline.org
>> http://lists.keionline.org/mailman/listinfo/ip-health_lists.keionline.org
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Ip-health mailing list
> Ip-health at lists.keionline.org
> http://lists.keionline.org/mailman/listinfo/ip-health_lists.keionline.org





More information about the Ip-health mailing list