[Ip-health] Risk adjustment for drug development, as a game of dice

Jamie Love james.love at keionline.org
Thu Apr 4 06:10:38 PDT 2013


Drug developers gamble on risky investments, in the hope that they
will have a profitable product.  Let's call them the gambler.

Consumers pay off when the risky investments are successful.   Let's
call them the House.

If it costs $1 to roll the dice, and the House pays $7, bets will be placed.

If it costs $1 to roll the dice, and the House pays $3, rational
gamblers will not place bets

If it costs $1 to roll the dice, and the House pays $700, gamblers
will place a lot of bets, but it will super expensive for the House.


-- 
James Love.  Knowledge Ecology International
http://www.keionline.org, +1.202.332.2670, US Mobile: +1.202.361.3040,
Geneva Mobile: +41.76.413.6584, efax: +1.888.245.3140.
twitter.com/jamie_love




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