[Ip-health] The Financial Times: Global spending on drugs to exceed $1tn

Thiru Balasubramaniam thiru at keionline.org
Tue Nov 19 03:28:40 PST 2013


November 19, 2013 5:08 am

Global spending on drugs to exceed $1tn

By Andrew Jack in London

Global spending on prescription medicines will accelerate next year to
exceed $1tn for the first time, fuelled by the launch of more innovative
drugs  <http://www.ft.com/companies/pharmaceuticals>and rising health
expenditure in emerging markets led by China.

The rise, projected by the IMS Institute for Healthcare
part of the healthcare consultancy, in its annual review, points to renewed
growth after stagnation during 2013, following a period of patent expiries,
healthcare austerity and limited economic expansion.

Michael Kleinrock, director of research, said: “The pipeline is really
packed, and we’re on track for absolute growth after passing through a low
point driven by the depth of the patent expiry cliff. There is a bit of a
bounce to normal levels.”

In emerging markets, rising demand for healthcare paid out of pocket by the
growing middle class is being matched by an expansion in universal health
coverage programmes to extend provision, and targeted public health
policies such as rising vaccination rates.

The jump comes at a time of growing use of cheaper off-patent generic
medicines, predicted to grow from 27 per cent to 36 per cent of the global
market by 2017 and as high as 63 per cent in the fast-growing emerging

IMS predicts that overall the Chinese drug market will grow by 14-17 per
cent over the coming five years, reflecting expansion in healthcare
government despite projections of a broader economic slowdown. By then it
will have overtaken Japan as the world’s second-largest market after the US.

The data, especially in the US, is partly based on drug list prices
multiplied by prescription sales volumes in pharmacies. IMS estimated the
absolute sales figures would be 0.5-1.5 per cent lower after taking into
account discounts and rebates.

By 2017, when world spend is forecast to reach $1.2tn, it predicts the
leading drug therapy areas in developed markets will be oncology,
diabetes <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6704b8d8-4894-11e3-8237-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk>and
anti-TNF drugs for inflammatory conditions led by rheumatoid arthritis.
That partly reflects the growing age of the populations and the rising
trend of obesity.

In emerging markets, pain medicine sales will continue to dominate,
reflecting symptomatic and cheaper treatments rather than more targeted
therapy for underlying conditions. Diseases of the central nervous system
and antibiotics are ranked second and third.

Two-thirds of the total medicines market in 2017 will be accounted for by
the eight markets of the US, France, Germany, the UK, Italy and Spain, as
well as China and Japan, which will also be responsible for nearly 60 per
cent of the total growth in spending.

IMS highlights the broader use of innovative medicines ahead including oral
rheumatoid arthritis drugs, cystic fibrosis treatments, and medicines for
melanoma and prostate cancer. It also predicts the launch of powerful new
treatments for multiple sclerosis, Hepatitis C, heart failure and malaria.

In the US, the report predicts fresh growth linked to a reduction in patent
expiries and expanding healthcare coverage.

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