[Ip-health] FT: And now the other TPP battles begin

[Thiru Balasubramaniam]

<SNIP>

So the bigger issue for Mr Obama may be that Republicans are annoyed by
compromises US negotiators have made in recent days by excluding the
tobacco industry from an investment dispute system and agreeing to shorter
monopoly exclusions for next-generation drugs known as “biologics”. They
also have been frustrated by the Obama administration’s pushing of issues —
such as tough labour standards for Vietnam — requested by some of the same
congressional Democrats who this year sought to block the deal altogether.

That has raised the possibility that Mr Obama may not be able to count on
the Republican leadership to push a TPP through a Congress they control as
aggressively as he might want.

“You have to dance with the one that brought you,” said one Republican.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/69f94d26-6af5-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html

October 5, 2015 1:18 pm

And now the other TPP battles begin

Shawn Donnan in Atlanta

With the announcement that ministers have agreed on the terms of a vast new
Pacific Rim trade zone after five years of negotiations, US President
Barack Obama has scored a major victory on a key component of his economic
legacy.

But the battle is far from the last one Mr Obama faces to make the
12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership a reality. Ahead lies what looks
likely to be another hard-fought political battle next year to get the
agreement through Congress, with some of the Republican allies Mr Obama has
counted on in the past on trade becoming annoyed over key concessions the
US was forced to make to secure a deal.

It will also take place against the backdrop of a presidential campaign
which, with Donald Trump as Republican frontrunner, has seen an increase in
protectionist rhetoric.

“The Trans-Pacific Partnership is an attack on America’s business,” the
billionaire property developer said earlier this year. “This is a bad deal.”

Mr Obama is not alone. Canada’s Stephen Harper faces an election on October
19 in which he is locked in a three-way tie, with one of his opponents
vowing to tear up anything he has negotiated. In Japan, Shinzo Abe’s
popularity is slumping just as he faces the daunting prospect of getting
the TPP through the Diet. Even in single-party Vietnam a leadership change
looming in 2016 means it faces its own political challenges over the TPP.

The deal unveiled after five days of around-the-clock talks by ministers
still faces procedural — and political — hurdles in the US.

Mr Obama has to give 90 days’ notice to Congress that he intends to sign
any trade deal, meaning he cannot do so before January at the earliest.
Other requirements mean that it could easily be the middle of the year
before Congress takes up any bill.

The president this year relied on Republican support to overcome Democratic
opposition and secure the “fast-track authority” he needed from Congress to
close the TPP, which is the biggest trade deal struck in two decades.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is an attack on America’s business

- Donald Trump


So the bigger issue for Mr Obama may be that Republicans are annoyed by
compromises US negotiators have made in recent days by excluding the
tobacco industry from an investment dispute system and agreeing to shorter
monopoly exclusions for next-generation drugs known as “biologics”. They
also have been frustrated by the Obama administration’s pushing of issues —
such as tough labour standards for Vietnam — requested by some of the same
congressional Democrats who this year sought to block the deal altogether.

That has raised the possibility that Mr Obama may not be able to count on
the Republican leadership to push a TPP through a Congress they control as
aggressively as he might want.

“You have to dance with the one that brought you,” said one Republican.

Administration officials believe that once the entire TPP agreement is laid
out for the Republican leadership any reluctance will evaporate, and liken
it to the business community, which has continually expressed broad support
for the project even as the pharmaceuticals industry and others groan about
some of its provisions.

They also believe that some of the provisions in the TPP, such as its
strong labour and environmental chapters, and a bid to at least address
Democratic concerns about possible competitive currency devaluations by
some US trading partners, could win over Democrats who voted against the
president this year.

But the fact remains that Mr Obama is unlikely to draw enough support from
his own party to get the TPP through Congress, and that illustrates the
curious situation faced by a president long reviled by many Republicans, as
he tries to secure his economic legacy.

“There has been a longstanding tension in that the Obama administration’s
heart is with the Democrats . . . but their votes are coming from the
Republicans. That makes for a very odd dynamic,” said Philip Levy, a senior
fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

A bigger question than that is whether, given next year’s presidential
election, a protracted primary season and the current mood in Republican
politics, there is even a political window to get the TPP through Congress.

Administration officials believe one does exist and argue that a TPP vote
could easily be held before the middle of the year. But even if Republicans
do rally around the TPP they might prefer to hang on for a Republican
administration and one that might reopen the deal and address the issues
they have — particularly if, as many experts believe, the TPP is likely to
set a global precedent on key issues.

The deal is done. But a significant fight still lays ahead.