[Ip-health] Gilead's 2015: By the Numbers

Chase Perfect chaseperfect at gmail.com
Wed Feb 24 07:40:37 PST 2016

Hi everyone,

With Gilead's Q4 figures released earlier this month, a quick overview:

Gilead's sofosbuvir-based revenue in 2015 from Harvoni and Sovaldi: ~$19.2

Harvoni: $13.9 billion total ($10.1 from US, $2.2 from Europe, $1.6 from
Sovaldi: $5.3 billion

Putting this revenue stream in context:

*30 hours*: time needed to recover direct costs of Pharmasset's investment
in sofosbuvir from 2009-2011 ($62.4 million, as quoted by Rob Weissman in
Congressional testimony; though the compound was identified in 2007,
2009-2011 accounted for the meat of Pharmasset's pre-clinical work and
phase I/II clinical trials)

*Less than one week*: the time needed to recover Pharmasset's total costs
from 2002-2011 (per SEC filings)

*January 20: *date in 2016 by which Gilead's 2015 sof-based revenue
(extrapolating constant stream) would have equaled the Malaysian
government's entire expenditure on medicines/vaccines/reagents/consumables;
see Malaysian budget 2016 (exact figure: 4.6 billion Ringgit)

*455 million people*: combined population of Pakistan, Bangladesh and
Ethiopia; in 2015, the TOTAL health expenditures of all three countries
COMBINED fell short of Gilead's revenue from sof-based drugs in 2015 (based
on WB figures on GDP and health spending as % of GDP)

*6 decades:* Gilead's $19.2 in sof-based revenue would be enough cash to
finance the Global Fund operating budget for over 60 years (based on 2015
budget estimate of $299 million of operating costs); with interest, that
money could fund any equivalent organization well throughout the next
century (

*5 years*: Sof-based revenue from 2015 would be enough to fund Global Fund
grant disbursements for half a decade


*128 million:* Number of HCV patients that could be treated by equivalent
budget via robust generic market (i.e. with $150 12-week regimen);
estimates vary, but the WHO has placed global prevalence of chronic HCV at
150 million individuals. If Gilead's cumulative DAA revenue of over $30
billion were taken into account (since late 2013; thanks to Steve Knievel
for this figure), it's conceivable that this expenditure outlay could cover
the direct cost of diagnostics and meds for the entire 150 million
(assuming a robust market in diagnostics and generics).

Other observations:

-Gilead registered a* net income of $18.1 billion* on $32.6 billion in
total revenue for 2015; curiously, Gilead's stock dropped some 15-20% (YTD
since last Q4 statement), despite improved earnings per share.

-In second place, Abbvie's Humira registered $14.01 billion in 2015 sales



P.S. Financial summary for 2015 can be accessed here:

Chase Perfect (MA, MsPH)
Access to Medicines Policy Officer
HIV/HCV Drug Affordability Project
Coalition Plus
Email: cperfect at coalitionplus.org
Twitter: cperfect1984

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