[Ip-health] Another comparison of DiMasi and PhRMA clinical trial numbers

Jamie Love james.love at keionline.org
Tue Mar 15 08:44:04 PDT 2016

Since both the PhRMA estimates of trial costs per patient and the
Tufts/DiMasi study can fairly be called industry estimates, it can be
useful to ask yourself how many patients would have been in the trials, if
the PhRMA per patient cost estimates are accurate (and why would PhRMA
lowball the estimates?)

DiMasi average cost of trials by Phase are:

Phase I 25.3 million
Phase II 58.6 million
Phase III 255.4 million

PhRMA cost per patient by phase estimates are:


Phase 1  $ 38500
Phase 2  $ 40000
Phase 3  $ 42000

Using these two data points, the implied number of patients per phase, are
as follows:

Phase 1  647 patients
Phase 2  1,465 patients
Phase 3  6,081 patients

I will add that these number of patients are radically different from what
you see in FDA medical reviews for the lead indications on new drugs (what
most people think the cost of R&D is related to)

I'll let others comment on the PhRMA estimates of the average Phase 1-3 per
patient costs, which of course, are PhRMA numbers for the average costs,
across all drugs, and in practice vary a lot across different diseases.


James Love.  Knowledge Ecology International
KEI DC tel: +1.202.332.2670, US Mobile: +1.202.361.3040, Geneva Mobile:
+41.76.413.6584, twitter.com/jamie_love

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